POLITICAL PEOPLE!

[swangin and bangin]

i was watchin some television today
and i seen all the president wanna be's in Iowa.


why the fuck do they care about some little state like that?  shouldnt they be fuckin with the big boys like texas, california, NY, and other big states? instead of wastin major money and time in those small states.

and that ron paul dude was hella losin, some other white dude was on top.
i still havent registered to vote yet cuz i dont know politics, but i found that interesting that they spent millions to plan and goto fuckin iowa

[Javier]

It's good that it starts in these smaller states because it gives a chance to candidates that do not have the money or star power to build momentum.  Prime example is Huckabee winning today.  Romney spent 20x more than Huckabee and still lost.  If California would have been first, then pretty much the candidate with the most money is going to win.  In fact, if California was first...then Clinton would automatically be the Democratic candidate.  Since it wasn't, it's giving Obama a chance to build momentum and compete with her in the states where she's leading by a wide margin.  The average polls right now in California was 43-20 in favor of Clinton over Obama.  Thanks to Obama winning in Iowa it's going to get closer. And if Obama wins in New Hampshire, it's really going to be tight.   

[Tay]

The main reason they attack Iowa is because it is the first primary/caucus out of all of the states, so the winner gets a lot of momentum because people like to jump on the bandwagon of a winner. It also lets some candidates know that they don't have much chance if they can't contend in Iowa, so they drop out and don't have to waste a bunch more money. I saw a news clip about people complaining that Iowa and then New Hampshire can have so much control in the primaries. The other possibilities are alternating and having each group of states get a chance to go first, or having all the states do it at the same time, but it will probably stay the same. Winners in Iowa were Obama and Huckabee, so that puts them in good position. It doesn't guarantee it though, Bill Clinton didn't win Iowa but we know how that ended up.

[Javier]

Big reason why Clinton didn't win in Iowa because he skipped campaigning there and concentrated in the other states. Similar to what Giuliani has done this time around.   

[swangin and bangin]

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

i got yall
so its more like a tournament
all the shitty teams fall out and they goto like the final 4 and shit

i see, i see

yea, is it true that obama is Muslim?

i bet that would cost him madd votes because of the terrorist image that is associated nowadays

[Tay]

I just read a couple things about him being Muslim, and what I got from it is that his dad was, and he went to both Christian and Muslim schools in Indonesia. It said he officially joined the United Church of Christ to convince people that he did not practice Islam.


Good point about the small states Mr. Javii, the big states would have followed the money, but in Iowa the candidates were able to meet with a greater percentage of the voters to influence them. Now, the effect of money is lessened because people want to vote for winners.

[Elevz]

I'm not sure if they let the people in Iowa vote first because it gives those with a limited budget a better chance to get up front in the race, but that sure is the effect of the way things are organized. And indeed, that's also why these politicians have been focusing on Iowa so much - the outcome of the voting there is important for the way people in other states are going to vote.

Besides, I don't think Ron Paul did bad in the end. He got 10% of the Republican votes, which was more than double of what Giuliani, who was seen as the #1 Republican candidate, ended up with. Of course Ron Paul won't run for president in the end, he's way too radical for that, but the numbers he did surely are decent.

[Trauma-san]

Iowa is first because it set itself up that way.  Pretty smart move.  New Hampshire used to be first, then Iowa cock blocked 'em.

I'd like to point out that Obama and Clinton each have the same amount of basic funds behind them, so if the first state was California there is no guarantee that Clinton would win since Obama has just as much money.

Also, Obama is clearly not a muslim but has went to a muslim school,etc. blah blah blah.  That's an addition to his history, not a negative.  I ultimately don't think it will hurt his chances, and judging by what he did last night, I gotta say I think he's gonna take the democratic nomination.  I'm not saying Clinton will get trounced, but there is something just fundamentally WRONG about the woman.  Actually, there's a lot of things wrong with her, and even democrats themselves generally see it.  She generally is not a nice woman, period.  She comes off as fake, condescending, elitist... and that's not good at all.  She has no experience, and has a mentality that she's meant to save the world, even though the world is largely doing just fine without her and she has no credentials to do so. 

I don't support most of Obama's politics; however, he is a fine person who would make a great president.  I personally hope he doesn't win because his vision of America and mine are different... but if he does win, it will be a great day for America regardless.  What I like least about Obama is his attitude that America is in a shithole, which I personally do not believe.  We live in tough times, we have two tough wars going on, the same problems that have always been around are still around, but in general the U.S. is better today than it was 10 years ago, and that's AFTER being bombed by terrorists.  There are a tonnnn of people though that are unhappy and he's preaching to them, so if they elect him I will concede that it's his time.

On the republican side, I'm a Mitt Romney fan, not because of the mormon thing but because I honestly think he's a leader, and will always make the right choice.  He was elected a republican governor of a largely democratic state, and worked there and got shit done.  He's a good man who's been married to the same woman for 30 years, and has 5 sons who all are married (only 1 wife each, in case you're wondering since they're mormon).  He has good, workable solutions to a lot of the problems in America, and I think he would be an excellent president, much better than the current one and infinitely better than the one before him.  I think he's one of the most successful men who have ever ran for president, has an incredible pedigree, and I believe out of all of the 15 or so Candidates, he'll be able to accomplish the most in office. 

This is a man who has been rich his entire life.  Like his ad says, he once had a business partner who's daughter got lost in Nyc, or ran away, or whatever... Mitt shut the whole damn company down, flew everybody to NY, and looked for the girl all night.  The entire company! That says a fucking lot.  On television the other night they were talking about how he may not be able to understand the common man, because of his wealth and success.  The interviewer brought that up, and Mitt told her, "look, I'm not here to help the Rich.  The Rich are doing just fine, they don't need my help."  This is a guy with grounded, sometimes even tried and true practices of running government and business, all of which he's done successfully.  If we elect this man, he will do more for the good of America domestically and foreign than any other candidate.  That is why I'm going to vote for him. 

Mike Huckabee is a great guy but I'm not really down with the whole "glory glory hallelujia" approach of his campaign.  It always amazed me when people said that George Bush won on the religious vote, when in reality George Bush never really utilized the Christian vote at all, rarely makes religious statements, and is a fairly middle road conservative.  You have not SEEN religious ferver until you've seen what Mike Huckabee is going to do.  People are voting for him simply over abortion and religious/cultural beliefs, which is dangerous since it is injecting a little bit of faith, which by nature is not factual, into the presidential process.  Mike Huckabee is running on a campaign saying that he will fix America's cultural problems; the problem with that is that America's culturual problems can't really be affected by the office of the president.  That's a family and church matter, not a White House matter.  So if people would ever realize that what he proclaims he will do he largely won't be able to accomplish, it may change their vote.  All in all, though, Mike Huckabee is a fine human being and would likely make a good president as he was elected, what, 5 times to the office of Governor in Arkansas.  Interesting, as well is that he ran again Clinton-backed opponents each time.  So he's already beaten the Clinton machine, if she becomes the nominee.

As I've said from the beginning, Clinton will NEVER get elected.  Obama may very well be unstoppable, he's almost irresistable.  Keep in mind as well, that last night, the racial undertones that everybody complains about in America, were nonexistant.  Obama won 38% of the democratic caucus, shattering Clinton and Edwards, in a state that is only 2% black.  That is masterful campaigning.  We'll have to see how it works elsewhere. 

[Javier]

Clinton's star power and recognized name has given her a 19+ point advantage in the California polls.  It would still be unfair, Obama would have been forced to raise more money than Clinton. 

[swangin and bangin]

Props Trauma
i needed to get gamed up on that presidential shit
so if Obama can get that much support in a 2%black  state i think hes gona take it

[Trauma-san]

I would put the odds at 50/50 right now that Obama defeats Hillary.  You have to remember that Hillary has a huge political machine behind her.  There's always also the fact that she may very well 'lose' the primaries and still get placed as the nominee.

Hillary's problem is going to be getting dirt to stick to Obama.  The Clintons win elections time and time again by running a negative campaign against their opponents... she hasn't got too negative yet because she's thought she's a shoe in.  She did try some trick shit saying obama was a drug addict, then attacking him writing a paper as a 5 year old about being president, etc., leaking shit about him being muslim, etc..... but it all backfired, largely because Iowa doesn't like dirty politics. 

Look for her to keep harping on his inexperience.  Unfortunately for her, when she trys to say she's the candidate for change, she can't at the same time say she has more experience than Obama.  She also has the fact that she's a phony holding her back.  She's got a hard battle ahead of her.

It's like this.  Hillary has a tough fight.  She does WELL, *very* well in any fight.... but this is such a tough battle she may not even be able to overcome it. 

Then we'll have to all talk about the general election with whomever the republican candidate is.  If Hillary is the other side, it's a shoe in for a republican to be in office.  If Obama is the dem. side, it'll be a close race. 

[Mr. O]

how's flordia gonna affect this election?  Is it gonna be like bush shit?

[Dubz]

^if huckabee get the nomination for the republicans, i think it might be similar to bush because both huckabee and bush play the conservative-hick-christian card heavily, and there are plenty of those fuckers down in the middle and north of FLA. the government didnt count a crazy number of al gore votes in bush's first time around, though, so that's one reason why florida seems like such a bush state, too, i guess. IMO, if everythings counted cleanly, florida may have an impact on account of its somewhat large population, but won't skew the election one way or the other.

[M Dogg™]

Obama may not actually beat Hillary, but his forcing her hand. Change candidates, or dreamers, or movement candidates, rearly ever win, and the Clinton machine is way to powerful. I do hope that Obama wins, his running a masterful campaign, that's relaying on youth support and lots of internet donations. I am part of Obama's e-mails list, and Clinton's, and I get an e-mail from the Obama's all the time, plus they count people buying buttons and stickers as donations, and put people that buy things from them as donations. On the flip side, Hillary's people ask for a donation once in a great while, and she is running a too established campaign to rally the Democrat base. BUT, as great as Obama is running, and as faulty as Hillary is looking, the bottomline is this, Obama rallied the youth, as first time voters ran this last primary, and Iowa hates negative campaigns. But he will have to depend on youth votes for the rest of the states, he'll have to do what he did 49 more times, plus the rest of the nation loves negative campaigns. Bill lost Iowa in 1992, lost NH, and still won the nomination. Hillary already is dissing the Iowa vote, and will get the dirt going, because you better believe that the Clinton's will have better dirt than a kindergarden paper and common youthful mistakes up her sleave. Obama is a movement campaign, but at the sametime his a movement campaign with $100m behind him, trust me, the Clinton's can spin that.

Why Iowa first? From Wiki: "It came to national attention in 1972, with a series of articles in the New York Times on how non-primary states would choose their delegates for the national conventions. Democratic operative Norma S. Matthews, state co-chair of the George McGovern campaign, helped engineer the early January start for Iowa. Four years later, the Iowa Republican Party scheduled its party caucuses on the same date as the Democrats."

Huckabee is the mistake the Republicans never thought would happen. Huckabee is a true Christian, but not a true conservative. For years the Republican Neo-Cons have counted on the Christian base to power their party, and have had people like Romney, or Bush or Reagan lead the party, who are not as religious, who have power, lead. The Neo-Cons want the Christian right vote, but not the Christian right leadership, and Huckabee is a threat to everything. Huckabee is a Republican talking about true Christian issues, education, poverity, health care. Remember, at one time the Democrats where the more religious party and that's how those issues evolved for them, and the Republicans have that happening now with Huckabee. Huckabee has the Christian right, the true Christian right that believed that the Neo-Cons would end abortions with their 6 years in charge, would bring family values to the country, and instead turned because they got Bush. I do believe Huckabee will win. His got more national support than Obama over Hillary. Huckabee is what the Neo-Cons don't want. Ask Sean Hannity.

[Narrator]

^if huckabee get the nomination for the republicans, i think it might be similar to bush because both huckabee and bush play the conservative-hick-christian card heavily, and there are plenty of those fuckers down in the middle and north of FLA. the government didnt count a crazy number of al gore votes in bush's first time around, though, so that's one reason why florida seems like such a bush state, too, i guess. IMO, if everythings counted cleanly, florida may have an impact on account of its somewhat large population, but won't skew the election one way or the other.

Bush and Huckabee are completely different.  Bush is a neo-con, not an evangelical conservative.  There is a very big difference.