Author Topic: wierd thing to think about:how a civil could start in my country.  (Read 66 times)

ARYC

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ok so basically this is what i've been thinking about lately :" how an armed conflict could start in Lebanon".
For a war to start , u need at least 2 capable sides , in the 1st civil war (not counting the 1958 incidents as a civil war) u had the Palestinians and the chrisitians (back then all political parties had an armed wing), this time it's the Shiites (Hizzbullah) and the Sunnis(the FM have billions in the bank and the majority in parliament).
Basically , there is a lot of tension between Sunnis and Shiites , because when Rafik Hariri was killed , everyone rallied around the FM EXCEPT the Shiites and the semi-war between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq.
So u have the base, now u need the flare .And that would be the UN investigation into the assasination.If it says that Hizzbullah are the ones that executed the plan , something like the car that was detonated belonged to a former south Lebanon army member  who withdrew to israel in 2000 (SLA are a pro-israeli militia , there cars come from Israel and they were siezed by hizzbullah in 2000), then all hell will break loose.
At 1st it'll be a bunch of street battles , but after that it'll be a war of elimination with the sunnis trying to eliminate the Hizzballah and the Hizzballah trying to invade Sunni regions.
Then u factor in things like , Syria ,Iran, the Druze , the christians ,sunni extremists(who hate the FM and have close ties to Al quaeda),  UN resolution 1559 and the palestinians (who could join the sunnis cause they're sunnis too or the shiites because if hizballah get dissarmed theyr'e next).
Anyways in a sick kind of way i'm kind of excited to see how the whole thing plays out. 
 
« Last Edit: August 06, 2005, 12:10:49 AM by Aminidictos »


 

WestCoasta

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Re: wierd thing to think about:how a civil could start in my country.
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2005, 02:16:19 AM »
 :-\
 

ARYC

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Re: wierd thing to think about:how a civil could start in my country.
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2005, 05:14:04 AM »
 ???