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POLITICAL PEOPLE!
Trauma-san:
I would put the odds at 50/50 right now that Obama defeats Hillary. You have to remember that Hillary has a huge political machine behind her. There's always also the fact that she may very well 'lose' the primaries and still get placed as the nominee.
Hillary's problem is going to be getting dirt to stick to Obama. The Clintons win elections time and time again by running a negative campaign against their opponents... she hasn't got too negative yet because she's thought she's a shoe in. She did try some trick shit saying obama was a drug addict, then attacking him writing a paper as a 5 year old about being president, etc., leaking shit about him being muslim, etc..... but it all backfired, largely because Iowa doesn't like dirty politics.
Look for her to keep harping on his inexperience. Unfortunately for her, when she trys to say she's the candidate for change, she can't at the same time say she has more experience than Obama. She also has the fact that she's a phony holding her back. She's got a hard battle ahead of her.
It's like this. Hillary has a tough fight. She does WELL, *very* well in any fight.... but this is such a tough battle she may not even be able to overcome it.
Then we'll have to all talk about the general election with whomever the republican candidate is. If Hillary is the other side, it's a shoe in for a republican to be in office. If Obama is the dem. side, it'll be a close race.
Mr. O:
how's flordia gonna affect this election? Is it gonna be like bush shit?
Dubz:
^if huckabee get the nomination for the republicans, i think it might be similar to bush because both huckabee and bush play the conservative-hick-christian card heavily, and there are plenty of those fuckers down in the middle and north of FLA. the government didnt count a crazy number of al gore votes in bush's first time around, though, so that's one reason why florida seems like such a bush state, too, i guess. IMO, if everythings counted cleanly, florida may have an impact on account of its somewhat large population, but won't skew the election one way or the other.
M Dogg™:
Obama may not actually beat Hillary, but his forcing her hand. Change candidates, or dreamers, or movement candidates, rearly ever win, and the Clinton machine is way to powerful. I do hope that Obama wins, his running a masterful campaign, that's relaying on youth support and lots of internet donations. I am part of Obama's e-mails list, and Clinton's, and I get an e-mail from the Obama's all the time, plus they count people buying buttons and stickers as donations, and put people that buy things from them as donations. On the flip side, Hillary's people ask for a donation once in a great while, and she is running a too established campaign to rally the Democrat base. BUT, as great as Obama is running, and as faulty as Hillary is looking, the bottomline is this, Obama rallied the youth, as first time voters ran this last primary, and Iowa hates negative campaigns. But he will have to depend on youth votes for the rest of the states, he'll have to do what he did 49 more times, plus the rest of the nation loves negative campaigns. Bill lost Iowa in 1992, lost NH, and still won the nomination. Hillary already is dissing the Iowa vote, and will get the dirt going, because you better believe that the Clinton's will have better dirt than a kindergarden paper and common youthful mistakes up her sleave. Obama is a movement campaign, but at the sametime his a movement campaign with $100m behind him, trust me, the Clinton's can spin that.
Why Iowa first? From Wiki: "It came to national attention in 1972, with a series of articles in the New York Times on how non-primary states would choose their delegates for the national conventions. Democratic operative Norma S. Matthews, state co-chair of the George McGovern campaign, helped engineer the early January start for Iowa. Four years later, the Iowa Republican Party scheduled its party caucuses on the same date as the Democrats."
Huckabee is the mistake the Republicans never thought would happen. Huckabee is a true Christian, but not a true conservative. For years the Republican Neo-Cons have counted on the Christian base to power their party, and have had people like Romney, or Bush or Reagan lead the party, who are not as religious, who have power, lead. The Neo-Cons want the Christian right vote, but not the Christian right leadership, and Huckabee is a threat to everything. Huckabee is a Republican talking about true Christian issues, education, poverity, health care. Remember, at one time the Democrats where the more religious party and that's how those issues evolved for them, and the Republicans have that happening now with Huckabee. Huckabee has the Christian right, the true Christian right that believed that the Neo-Cons would end abortions with their 6 years in charge, would bring family values to the country, and instead turned because they got Bush. I do believe Huckabee will win. His got more national support than Obama over Hillary. Huckabee is what the Neo-Cons don't want. Ask Sean Hannity.
Narrator:
--- Quote from: Dubz on January 04, 2008, 06:20:25 PM ---^if huckabee get the nomination for the republicans, i think it might be similar to bush because both huckabee and bush play the conservative-hick-christian card heavily, and there are plenty of those fuckers down in the middle and north of FLA. the government didnt count a crazy number of al gore votes in bush's first time around, though, so that's one reason why florida seems like such a bush state, too, i guess. IMO, if everythings counted cleanly, florida may have an impact on account of its somewhat large population, but won't skew the election one way or the other.
--- End quote ---
Bush and Huckabee are completely different. Bush is a neo-con, not an evangelical conservative. There is a very big difference.
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