Raptors hopefull Carter can lead Turn-around...

[PLANT]

By John Hollinger, SI.com
 
 
In the wake of a hugely disappointing 2002-03, the Toronto Raptors haven't shuffled the deck as much as one might have expected. The same five starters will be back this year to have another go at it, partly because the five take up nearly all the Raptors' salary-cap space and thus limit their flexibility to make changes, but also because the Raptors weren't looking to deal.

But that doesn't mean another 24-58 debacle is on the way. The starting five returns, but everything else has been changed. Think of it as the same furniture in a different room. For starters, laid-back Lenny Wilkens was shown the door after another year of failing to get the best out of Vince Carter. In his stead comes his polar opposite -- Kevin O'Neill, whom the Raptors hope will plant his foot squarely in Carter's posterior and, in doing so, return him to his former exalted levels.

The bench has been completely nuked, to the great relief of Raptors fans everywhere. Last year's motley crew was scraped from the bottom of the NBA's barrel, and it was exposed regularly, as Carter and Antonio Davis missed big chunks of the year with injuries. But instead of the Michael Bradleys and Greg Fosters who polluted the landscape a year ago, Toronto has brought in reinforcements. Jerome Moiso gives the Raps a legit backup center, although he's a bit slightly built, and first-round draft choice Chris Bosh should be a massive improvement over Bradley. The return of Lamond Murray from a foot injury that cost him last season also should make the Toronto bench more potent. Offseason pickups Michael Curry and Rick Brunson help give the unit some defensive toughness.

But whether O'Neill sinks or swims in his first season as a head coach depends on Carter. The Raptors need him to play 70 games at an All-Star level if they're going to return to the postseason.

 

Starting Five. When healthy, the Raptors' lineup of Alvin and Jerome Williams, Carter, Morris Peterson and Antonio Davis can still hang with anyone in the East. All but Jerome Williams are a threat to score, and all five are average or better on the defensive end.

The key is keeping them on the court. Last year Davis missed 29 games and Carter missed 39, which exposed Toronto's kiddie-pool-deep bench. Father time is becoming a concern as well. Davis will turn 35 the week of opening day, and Jerome Williams is 30, which is long in the tooth for a player who depends on energy and atheticism. While they have more bench help than last year, these are still the five horses the Raptors will ride all season.

Of particular concern is Peterson, who took a step backward last season. After a strong finish to his 2001-02 season, Peterson fell back into old habits, settling for too many long jumpers and not getting to the basket enough. As a result, he hit only 39 percent from the field, contributing to Toronto's offensive woes. Fortunately, the return of Murray gives the Raptors the choice to sit Peterson if he regressess -- an option that was painfully absent a year ago.

 

Post play. The typical Raptors possession from the past two years consisted of five guys passing it around the perimeter until Carter launched a contested 22-footer as the shot clock went off. The reason the Raptors had to resort to this tactic is that they've lacked players who can score effectively in the post.

Nearly all the important players are jump shooters. Carter, for all his high-wire act, is much more comfortable handling the ball on the perimeter than taking opposing players on the block. Davis, the best scorer among the big men, gets most of his points on offensive rebounds and short jumpers. The other big man, Williams, is strictly a garbage man. Newcomers Moiso and Bosh will help in other areas, but they weigh about 43 pounds combined, so their contributions on the blocks will be negligible. Murray, the best scorer on the bench, likes to shoot jumpers from the corner.

As a result, there's nobody to draw double-teams and create openings for the Raptors' jump shooters, and the offense stagnates. One of O'Neill's biggest challenges will be to get more shots around the basket for this team, either by encouraging Carter to post up more or cultivating another source of low-post scoring. One possibility is Alvin Williams, who was rarely used in this role a year ago but at 6-foot-5 has a size edge on nearly every opposing point guard.

 

Will the real Vince Carter please stand up? In 2000-01, Carter averaged 27.6 points a game and nearly single-handedly led the Raptors to a second-round playoff upset of top-seeded Philadelphia. But the Torontosauruses haven't seen that player the past two years. Carter missed 61 games in that time, and his scoring average last year fell to just 20.6.

It's not like he's taking better shots, either. Carter's free-throw attempts per game are nearly half what they were in 2000-01, symbolic of a player who has become increasingly reluctant to go to the basket. Meanwhile, his scintillating 40.8 percent 3-point mark in 2000-01 fell to just 34.4 last year.

Enter O'Neill. Many felt that Lenny Wilkens wasn't tough enough with Carter when he was settling for long jumpers the past two seasons. O'Neill is much more of a fire-and-brimstone type, and the hope in Toronto is that he can spur Carter to his previous heights. However, if Carter continues to be plagued by the knee problems that limited him the past two seasons, no amount of cajoling will return him to that stature.

 

In Vince we trust. Several teams will be vying for the final three playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Toronto figures to be one of them. Carter may never return to his 2000-01 level, but if the Raptors can get 75 games from him, they should be in good shape, because the bench is massively improved from a year ago. The Raptors better hope Carter delivers, because their future depends on it. Hemmed in by long-term onctarcts that Davis and the two Williams signed, Toronto has limited ability to add talent via free agency or trades. Wherever they're going, Carter needs to be the one to take them there.

[Da WCC Hopar!]