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Bush eyes the 'Big Enchilada'

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tommyilromano:
The prospect of winning California in 2008 has Republicans drooling, writes Philip James

Friday November 12, 2004

Bush Sr called it the "Big Enchilada" - the giant, rolled tortilla shaped state on America's left coast that carries a whopping 54 electoral college votes. He was the last Republican president to win California - a state that has gone essentially uncontested in every election since 1988.
This year it stopped Bush Jr from recording an out of sight landslide victory over John Kerry. But Kerry's margin of victory in what both parties have considered safe Democratic territory for well over a decade was uncomfortably thin.

While Clinton and Gore took the state by double digits in their attempts at the presidency, Kerry beat Bush by only nine points, and strategists from both parties are thinking the unthinkable as they plan for 2008: Is the "Big Enchilada" back in play?

The unavoidable answer is yes and it should have Democrats worried, for if California slips back into the Republican column, it would likely thrust the Democratic party back into a wilderness that would make Britain's third placed Liberal Democrats look relevant.

Just two years ago, California Democrats were celebrating a landmark achievement. In the 2002 election they swept all the state-wide elective offices, such as secretary of state. It was the first time the Democrats had achieved such a lockout in more than a century.

This turned out to be the apogee of Democratic power in the Golden State. Three months later, Gray Davis, the governor, was ousted in an unprecedented recall election, and Republicans are on the ascendant.

Voting patterns have been steadily moving California back to the midwest in recent years - a trend that is likely to continue. Democrats can rely on Los Angeles county and the San Francisco Bay area, but these concentrations are now surrounded by Republican territory.

What is more, population growth in counties that voted for Bush - spanning the vast reclaimed desert land of the inner part of the state - is projected to outpace growth in Democratic counties by more than a million people by 2008.

The same cultural conservatism that is reshaping America is also alive and well in California. Sixties-era liberalism may still radiate from the Haight Ashbury district in San Francisco to the Bay area, but today's California is much more a capital for the Christian right than for the progressive left.

In many ways the state has become ground zero for the culture war that is redefining US politics. The Massachusetts supreme court may have launched the row over gay marriage, but it was San Francisco's Democratic mayor, Gary Newsom, who turned it into a cause célèbre.

The flamboyant images of same sex couples getting hitched on the steps of city hall in the gay capital of America galvanised Republicans locally and nationally far more than Democrats.

The reactionary proposal banning gay marriage was a white hot issue in many states, amping up turn-out for Bush, but it was not on the ballot in California - a fact that helped keep the state in the Democratic column this time.

It stayed off the ballot there because California's secretary of state (the state's top election official), who can ease the path of ballot initiatives or throw up hurdles in their way, is a Democrat and he kept it off.

The lesson from California is that state-wide office holders - not just governors but also the unglamourous, but important, secretaries of state in each state - can have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of federal elections.

Of the 11 states that passed initiatives banning gay marriage, all but three (Oklahoma, Oregon and Michigan) have Republican governors and one of those, Michigan, has a Republican secretary of state.

The bottom line is this: state-wide offices matter and they matter more to a party in opposition, particularly one that has been effectively shut out of the three big houses in Washington.

You can bet that Republicans will mount a big push to win as many such offices as possible in California in 2006. Schwarzenegger will likely coast to a second term, but a lot of Republican dollars will be spent to unseat Kevin Shelley as secretary of state.

If they succeed, do not be surprised to find an anti-gay-marriage initiative on the ballot in California in 2008. Republicans would love to keep this wedge issue alive to help to flip the biggest electoral prize in US politics over to their column.

· Philip James is a former Democratic party strategist

http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1349785,00.html

If the democrats lose control there its over for them.

Don Seer:

something i've wondered.. does america have a significant third party?

in the UK we have (listed by my perceived size)  'New Labour' / Conservsatives / Liberal Democrats

the "Lib dems" are a way behind the other 2.. but the gap is closing.. the conservatives have slipped..

Labour used to be left wing, but revamped and swung into centre.. they made the right wing conservatives look old and out of date.. and all these years later they still do.. the lib dems are a bit wet but they're good peoples  :D

M Dogg™:
Living in California, I can say that a Republican winning California in the next 4 years is impossible. They forgot to mention that since 1994, California has been straight Democrat for many reasons. Before that, we were Reagan Country, since Reagan was governor in the late 1960's. California was the first state to cut property taxes, cut school funding and do many things. Grey Davis was our first Democrat governor is 16 years. We alway were Republicans, Orange Country countered LA, and the rest of the state followed. Now, it may look like all them inland countries are red, but they are a very light pink. In the 60's-early 90's, those countries were bright red. In fact, they are getting lighter, I should know, I live in a light pink county that was bright pink before. Now in terms of presidental elections, it really depends on the people. This county voted a slight edge for Bush, but in every other office, it voted Democrat, and kept the same Congressmen in office. That was a pattern among California. Now honestly, Bush was choicen with California in mind, because we've been so "liberal" since 1994. California history, in 1994, Republican governor Pete Wilson ran for re-election knowing two things, California was in it's worst situation ever so Wilson, knowing that Mexicans don't vote, ran on Prop 187 that basically placed blame on illegal immigrants for Cali's problems. In 1996, all the Republicans that ran off of 187, and most of them dissed the Mexican flag, were voted out, and in there place where Democrats. Though most of these new voters, the Mexicans, are not hardline liberals, they vote Democrats with 187 in mind. Now Bush is very popular with Latino voters. I read it in 1999, when they were still thinking of who's going to run, conservatives said Bush, because he can get Latinos to vote for him to counter 187. Bush still lose Cali, but it was closer, but in the end, after Bush, who is going to run. I don't see Latinos flacking to support any other Republican.

Ant:
I agree.  Cali isn't going republican.  The only reason the gap closed this year is a) latinos like Bush because he pretends to be religious b) terrorism c) a natural tendency for voters to side with the incumbent president during war time.

If you look at the margin Bush won by its not very impressive when you consider the fact that he once had a 80-90% approval rating, and considering that the US has never voted a president out during war time.  He barely managed to squeak through.  In 2008 Cali will swing back to democrats, and other states will become more powerfully blue.  Especially as bad news continues to come in about Bush messing shit up.

LIke, apparently no one found it interesting, but CIA resignations are popping up left and right.  2 very high ranking offcials resigned on Friday, both becoming vocally critical of the Bush Administration.  All the economic analyses show that his economic policies will continue to fuck us.  And so on.... Eventually the country will swing back to blue.

I've said before, Bush;s approval ratings have been steadily moving down down down, the problem was, there wasn't a big enough time span for them to move down to the point where he lost the election. He got free support because of 9-11, and its slowly been eroding, w/o 9-11 and the War on Terror, Bush never woulda made it thourgh 2004. 

Acgrundy:
republicans will never get cali.

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