West Coast Connection Forum
Lifestyle => Train of Thought => Topic started by: Ant on November 22, 2004, 09:30:33 PM
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From the NYTimes:
"One bit of presumably good news for a party that is looking for it, Americans now have a better opinion of the Democratic Party than of the Republican Party: 54 percent said they had a favorable view of Democrats, compared with 39 percent with an unfavorable view. By contrast, 49 percent have a favorable view of Republicans, compared with 46 percent holding an unfavorable one."
I predicted awhile ago that during the next four years republicans would slowly lose respect. This is only one study, and it doesn't show a major chance yet, but as the years go on these numbers will worsen. You can disagree with me now, but this is one argument that will be verifiable. Personally, I know 4 republicans who voted Kerry. One switched this year to become an independent after losing respect for his party. One works for a pharmaseutical company, and after being a huge bush support hates him with a passion. Another will likely never vote republican again, unless hillary runs since she hates hillary.
And the last one will probably still vote republican if someone he liked ran, but cannot for the life of him understand why republicans support GWB. Personally, I always prided myself on being independent, and not taking sides. My family voted Bush, and it really didnt bother me one way or the other, I remember some liberals hating Bush in 2000 and thinking they were kinda nutty. Well, by now it should be obvious :), the republican party, as it stands today, just disgusts me. I could never see myself voting for any republican, besides like a local politician. My mayor is republican and he is pretty good. I still like some of the ideals of the republican party, but now i just hope the democrats become the party of fiscal responsibility, and economic intelligence.
Anyways, say what you will, but it seems to me that altho bush won, a lot of people were put off by the republican party this year, and as more bad things begin to occur more people will start to feel the same. Already the dollar is falling, and inflation is rising. The economy isn't growing at a tremendous pace. Ohio is actually still losing jobs I believe and now more than a few prominent economists are saying we could be on the brink of economic crisis and not even realize it.
When things start getting really bad, there is only going to be one party to blame, because there is only one party responsible. But we'll see, maybe i'm wrong.
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You're still on this? LOL
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it was a new story :)
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So you HAVE to post it, huh?
Why don't you just post a link to the NY Times website, and save yourself the trouble of posting articles everyday.... just a suggestion...
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All this survey proves is that democrats hate republicans, but republicans like democrats. Think about it.
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that might not be a bad idea... i suggest you read daily or at least on occasion:
nytimes http://www.nytimes.com/
bbc news http://news.bbc.co.uk/
the economist http://www.economist.com/
foreign policy magazine http://www.foreignpolicy.com/
and i kinda like wired too, among other stuff.
but i post the specific articles, because they are worth highlighting, and they are discussable. I can't just post "so lets talk about the nytimes today." plus in a previous post I had stated that republicans were losing credibility and respect, this story confirmed my past point, in case it was in doubt.
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The only problem with you 'republicans are losing respect' theory, is, that WE JUST WHOOPED YOUR ASS.
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Do you understand what a prediction is? It happens in the future. Whooped happened in the past. My prediction is easily verifiable. If wrong it will be obvious. Again your post makes very little sense.
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OHHH, I got it. So in other words, even though we've been beating your ass since 92 in the house and in congress, and beating your ass since 2000 in the presidential race, in the future, we will lose respect. Don't see it happening. Watch the trend.
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OHHH, I got it. So in other words, even though we've been beating your ass since 92 in the house and in congress, and beating your ass since 2000 in the presidential race, in the future, we will lose respect. Don't see it happening. Watch the trend.
your not beating my ass. I've never donated to the democratic party. I'm not even registered democrat. If the Bush admin didn't fuck up so many things I probably wouldn't even lean democrat. I spent most of my college life arguing against hippie liberals, and am not exactly mr. generous at work either. Again, why are you arguing about the past. I didnt make a prediction that said "in 1996 no one will like republicans" I said by 2008 the republicans will have lost a lot of credibility. Its a prediction, you can't prove it wrong until we actually reach the future.
I have no reason to believe the republicans would lose respect in the 90's because they weren't blantantly incompetent in the 90s. The only reason I say republicans will lose respect in the next four years is because of this administration. Again, your posts don't even make sense. Instead of getting so wound up just calm down, and make a post that somewhat logical otherwise don't bitch that I'm stubborn cuz I'm not like. "oh trauma made another post that made no sense at all, so yeah I should agree with him."
If four years from now, republicans have less respect than they do today I was right, if not you were. Its as simple as that. All I ask is you be honest about shit when it happens, and I'll do the same. But i'm glad you pointed out the republicans control the senate, house, and presidency. When shit gets worse, as it will, we can all be honest about whose fault it was.
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Do you understand what a prediction is? It happens in the future. Whooped happened in the past. My prediction is easily verifiable. If wrong it will be obvious. Again your post makes very little sense.
Call me crazy, but doesn't the president get sworn in for his second term in January?
I mean, the electoral college folks haven't even cast their votes yet!
Lack of knowledge is no excuse.
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Do you understand what a prediction is? It happens in the future. Whooped happened in the past. My prediction is easily verifiable. If wrong it will be obvious. Again your post makes very little sense.
Call me crazy, but doesn't the president get sworn in for his second term in January?
I mean, the electoral college folks haven't even cast their votes yet!
Lack of knowledge is no excuse.
Honestly, I dont even know what your point is. GWB has not been confirmed for a second term, but he is our current president, and has been for the past four years. During the past four years i've seen two things:
1) some republicans felt out of place in their own party, and did not vote Bush, or became independents and in some cases democrats
2) democrats became more strongly opposed to the repubilcan party.
Now, honestly, I believe the worst is yet to come under Bush in regards to the economy, and he escaped a lot of criticism during the past four years because of 9-11, and because he was able to make excuses on a lot of the issues. As things continue to get worse, I dont believe people will continue to accept excuses, and given clear republican leadership now, only one party is to blame for what happens during the next four years. Already inflation is starting to creep in, and the dollar is continuing to drop in value. Now either way, I'm just giving my personal analysis, which you can test at a later date in the future. I'm not sure, but apparently your disagreing with my over my personal opinion, which I believe I made blatantly clear, and said hey you know what, if i'm wrong its going to be obvious. Why are you arguing with me now? If your right you should look forward to the future when its proven I'm wrong.
Before you go adding arrogant tag lines to the bottom of your posts, you might want to check and see if your actually making sense.
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^ that's all fine and dandy, and you must be quite perceptive to see republicans not supporting Bush; but what matters in the U.S. govermental system, is elections, which are held by the people, and which just re-elected not only the president, but a growing number of Republican senators... AND governors. So; the test of your assumptions is the election; which just proved your assumptions wrong... and you know what they say about ASSuMptions.
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I wrote a post entitled "predictions" after the U.S. elections, and said "given Bush winning, here is what I predict will happen in the future." One of the things I predicted is that republicans would continue to lose the respect of the American people. Is this so difficult to understand? Why do you keep saying "look what happened in the PAST, your prediction for the FUTURE is already proven wrong."
The test of my assumption is not the election. The test of my assumption that republicans will be less respected in the FUTURE is what happens in the FUTURE. Let's try simple math tho. If hypothetically, 80% of the country supports you, and then a few months go by and 60% of the country supports you, you could still WIN and election, and have LOST support. Coincidently, Bush once had approval ratings in the 80s, now they are in the low 50s, clearly he lost support during the past 2 years. And the trend will continue. Why are you in such a rush to prove me wrong before the FUTURE even arrives? Instead of whining before hand, you should be looking forward to me being wrong and you being right.
But given your track record vs. mine, I can see why you are frustrated. I mentioned the US dollar is declining becuz of the deficit awhile back, and well... its trading at 1.32 against the Euro today, and is predicted to drop to 1.35 or 1.40 in the near future.
I mentioned Bush was creating inflation and well, Oct. had the highest inflation rate since 1992. If i'm wrong on this one, then so be it.... its just my opinion, and your going to have to wait and see if I'm correct.
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Hey: You wrote it just a few days after the elections, which show a trend, the OPPOSITE direction of what you're stating. Conclusion: You're wrong.
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This post isn't about the past, but you obviously want to make a point that past data shows the trend is in the other direction. Actually past data shows just the opposite as well:
1. Bush once had approval ratings in the 80s, now his approval rating is in the mid 50s.
2. Bush won by the slimmest margin of any incumbent president since woodrow wilson.
3. Senatorial seats are not linked to population. In fact, democrats recieved far more votes than republicans. Unforuntately, every state is granted the same # of seats, so NY and Cali, recieve the same # of seats as Wyoming. In actual elections, electoral votes are weighted as we all know.
4. According to a recent study, Americans now have a more favorable opinion of democrats than of republicans, even though republicans have had control for the past four years.
5. Record numbers of prominent republicans voted Kerry. Over 20 former republican senators, govenors, and congressmen voted Kerry in 04.
6. No incumbent has ever lost during a time of war. The public doesn't like to change horses midstream.
If your argument is that "trends don't exist, unless the party loses" I dont think that makes much sense. If a president is highly respected, and then barely wins, and 48% of the population votes on him being "incompetent." Well, then I dunno, there might be a trend there. Of course by your logic, that is impossible, because Bush won, it doesn't matter if he won by 2 votes or 20 million votes, he still won. Actually, when Clinton won he only had 44% of the vote. John Kerry had 48% of the vote against an incumbent in war time.
But let's make it a lot simpler for you. All you have to do is contruct a simple graph. Plot Bush's approval rating over time, and then tell me what direction the trend is in?
If you can't look at facts, and admit the obvious, you shouldn't be arguing with me.
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Trauma shut the fuck up homie!! Tell Ant he's right and it's over! Goddamn! ;D
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I love how you guys post things that make no sense, and then arrogantly assume your correct, and feel no need to justify your position.
Let's explain it somewhat simpler. What is so difficult to understand about the concept of a prediction, and trend? And why do you follow me around in posts, defending the village idiot, and talking trash, while saying nothing of worth?
Let's take another example:
Let's say I 'predict' the yankees will the next world series. Then you come in and say "no your wrong, the yankees already lost the world series last last world series." Does that make any sense?
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1- Predictions? Shit, the same ones who predicted Gore and Kerry as Presidents of the USA? Yeah, right.. ::)
2- Seriously who gives a flying fuck about predictions on 2008 anyway? Shiiiit! :-X
3- I predict Bush will be the President of the USA for the next 4 years. :-*
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All you got to do is look at traumas picture of america, enough said.
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1- Predictions? Shit, the same ones who predicted Gore and Kerry as Presidents of the USA? Yeah, right.. ::)
2- Seriously who gives a flying fuck about predictions on 2008 anyway? Shiiiit! :-X
3- I predict Bush will be the President of the USA for the next 4 years. :-*
1. I never predicted Gore would win, my family actually voted Bush in 2000, but I really did not care who won. And I did bet on Kerry, but that was only because he was trading at a 45% chance of winning. I guess you could interpret that as a prediction, but that was more of a just for fun bet.
2. Exactly my point. Its just a little tiny prediction, you are the ones throwing a fit over it. My whole prediction should have taken up 2 lines of type on dubcc, instead you want to argue with me about the outcome of a prediction that can't even be tested yet.
3. So do I.
Do you even read my posts before you respond to me? There is no reason to take any of you seriously, if you can't have a reasonable discussion. Instead you come and post arrogance and hate, when you obviously haven't even read my post. I began posting articles about GWB on this site a few weeks ago. I never wrote in calling anyone names, or being a dick to anyone in particular. Instead you all take it as if I'm attacking you personally. After you run your mouth in my posts, ignoring my points, and just talking trash, eventually I criticize you personally. Is it all that hard to read my post, and take it for what its worth without twisting it so you can form some type of demented argument about it? You've spent this whole thread arguing that "because GWB won in 2004, the republicans won't lose credibility by 2008."
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Also, if you look at Trauma's picture, its just another example of a partisan, using misleading information to reaffirm their own worldview. Elections are not decided by land mass, but by votes. If one person lived in wyoming, and that person voted Bush, the whole of Wyoming would be red, but that would prove very little. We rely on an electoral college, where votes are weighted based on population size. Trauma likes to post that picture because it helps him reaffirm his false assumptions. The truth is:
1. 48% of the population voted blue.
2. GWB won by the smallest margin of any incumbent president since Woodrow Wilson..
3. Clinton won with only 44% of the vote, compared to Kerry's 48%.
4. America is split evenly almost, red & blue.
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1. I never predicted Gore would win, my family actually voted Bush in 2000, but I really did not care who won. And I did bet on Kerry, but that was only because he was trading at a 45% chance of winning. I guess you could interpret that as a prediction, but that was more of a just for fun bet.
2. Exactly my point. Its just a little tiny prediction, you are the ones throwing a fit over it. My whole prediction should have taken up 2 lines of type on dubcc, instead you want to argue with me about the outcome of a prediction that can't even be tested yet.
3. So do I.
Do you even read my posts before you respond to me?
lol, i did. The thing i dont understand is..
1. I wasnt talking about you, i dont care about your personal predictions. Nobody does.
2. So why you posted it if it's a prediction that can't even be tested yet? Just to make another topic?
3. lol.