Pacquiao-Bradley II

[DeeezNuuuts83]

The fight is in less than two weeks... any thoughts on this one?

Despite the bullshit split decision from their first fight, Bradley has proven himself to be a formidable opponent since then, having gone through solid guys like Provodnikov and Marquez.  I'd say his own split decision win over Marquez last fall was probably less debatable than either of Manny's wins over Marquez from 2008 and 2011, so that counts for something.  But while he was given a UD win over Provodnikov, I still can't get the images of how wobbly he got at times, especially when he had to take a knee.

I'm not counting Bradley out, but Manny is out for blood, especially since he "needs" the win more than Bradley does.  Bradley's undefeated, which is always part of a boxer's allure, but even if he loses, he still has a future ahead of him, contrasting to Manny, who is already in the second half of his 30s and is 1-2 since 2012.  If Manny loses, the boxing world will tell him that he needs to hang up his gloves, just like what would have been the case if he lost to Rios (which would have been a bad 0-3 streak and may have warranted retirement).  Obviously going in for the kill didn't quite work out for him before against Marquez (when he got caught with a lucky but well-placed KO punch and got put to bed), but Bradley doesn't have the best punching power and certainly not Marquez's counterpunching skills either.  I think even someone from Team Mayweather (it might have been Leonard Ellerbe) said that Manny would win.

As far as the business side goes... it should generate good money for Top Rank.  Even if Manny is getting a $20 million guarantee and Bradley is getting a $6 million guarantee (which is a career-high for him, but I thought he deserved a little more than that, since he's still on a winning streak and was offered $10 million in the event of the immediate rematch clause), the fight should do better than 1 million PPV buys, since for the moment it seems like the most interesting fight, at least within the welterweight division.  Their last fight did something around 900k buys, and that was back when Bradley was far less popular and didn't have a win against Manny AND Marquez under his belt.  And while Manny's last fight only did 475k buys, remember, that was coming off of two losses and against another boxer who was also coming off of a loss and didn't have that big of a name either.

So while the winners of Pacquiao-Bradley II and Marquez-Alvarado will face off... would anyone still watch it if it ended up being against Alvarado?  Unless it's in their contracts that they MUST fight, if Manny won by points (and not a lopsided UD destruction or a KO) and Alvarado did pull off the upset, I'd rather see the rubbermatch (Pacquiao-Bradley III) instead of Pacquiao-Alvarado.

[Sccit]

NICE SETUP...I DUNO WHO WINS, BUT IM FAVORING BRADLEY. WHOEVER WINS THIS SHOULD DEF FIGHT MAYWEATHER NEXT.


IF PACQUIAO LOSES HE'S FINISHED

[DeeezNuuuts83]

NICE SETUP...I DUNO WHO WINS, BUT IM FAVORING BRADLEY. WHOEVER WINS THIS SHOULD DEF FIGHT MAYWEATHER NEXT.


IF PACQUIAO LOSES HE'S FINISHED

It's already understood that the winner of Pacquiao-Bradley II will fight the winner of Marquez-Alvarado NEXT.  That's not to say that the winner will never fight Mayweather, but regardless of whether it's an excuse for him to use to not fight Manny, he's made it clear that he does not want to do business with Bob Arum, so that fight definitely won't happen immediately afterward, seeing how Manny's contract with Top Rank doesn't expire until December 31st, 2014, and Bradley signed a one-year extension earlier this year, so he's with Top Rank until around this time in 2015.  Additionally, both fighters know that leaving Top Rank doesn't guarantee them a fight with Mayweather anyway, since it's not like Floyd has never added additional stipulations after the previous ones were met.  But I agree, if the winner of the fight also beats the winner of Marquez-Alvarado, then they definitely have some great momentum that could lead to a Mayweather fight, especially if they end up not being tied to Top Rank, kind of like what Cotto did in 2012.

I wouldn't say that Pacquiao is finished if he loses, but his stock will severely decline, and retirement should definitely be something to be considered.  If he loses badly, whether it's a one-sided UD where he is completely outgunned or if it ends early, then yeah, he might be finished.  But if it's close and he loses, then the chapter with Bradley is definitely closed, but he could still take the loser of Marquez-Alvarado, ESPECIALLY if Alvarado also pulls off the upset.  If both Pacquiao and Marquez lose, there really isn't much interest in Bradley-Alvarado, and Pacquiao-Marquez V would definitely outsell that even if they are both coming off of losses, since people still want to see it.  Marquez would be on an 0-2 streak (like Manny was, going into Pacquiao-Rios), so his bargaining power won't be very strong, but it would still get him a pretty solid payday that would definitely fund his retirement.  Plus if Marquez does in fact lose to Alvarado, I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't want to retire with his career ending like that against a guy who shouldn't have stood a chance, as at least fighting Manny again (which could be both of their farewells to boxing and be another aspect of their backstory) can have his last fight be a good one, as he would still have the opportunity to end his career in a win, or at least lose against someone worth losing against, as I don't doubt that he went with Alvarado over Provodnikov due to him being worried about Provodnikov having a higher likelihood of winning than Alvarado... so it would be embarrassing to lose like that.  I don't doubt that if his career ended in a defeat, he'd rather have it be to someone elite like Manny than to someone relatively B-rated like Alvarado.

[DeeezNuuuts83]

Less than a week. After watching some previous Bradley fights, I think his best punches are close-range, but if there's any distance, his punches won't be anywhere near effective. He almost looks like he's slapboxing (watch the highlights of Bradley-Alexander and also Bradley-Provodnikov) as his elbows don't really seem to lock. And his wrists don't see to be very strong either, as they don't lock either:

[whoisthis]

Bradley is a pillow puncher. He doesn't have enough power to hurt anyone, but he does have a strong enough chin. Manny needs to outbox Bradley, because I doubt Bradley gets into a slug fest with him like he did with Provodnikov. The winner eventually fights Marquez, because I don't see Alvarado beating Marquez. Bradley/Marquez really doesn't make sense because the first fight was not close. Pacquiao/Marquez 5 is overkill, but makes sense for Manny to avenge the loss.

Let's say Manny wins, fights Marquez in the fall and wins. He'll be 3-0 in his last 3 and Floyd will no longer be able to use his record against him. If they're able to work it out, Manny and Floyd could be in the same ring around this time next year. Floyd wouldn't fight Bradley. As a matter of fact, he just visited Bradley training camp to give him a pep talk.

[Sccit]

Bradley is a pillow puncher. He doesn't have enough power to hurt anyone, but he does have a strong enough chin. Manny needs to outbox Bradley, because I doubt Bradley gets into a slug fest with him like he did with Provodnikov. The winner eventually fights Marquez, because I don't see Alvarado beating Marquez. Bradley/Marquez really doesn't make sense because the first fight was not close. Pacquiao/Marquez 5 is overkill, but makes sense for Manny to avenge the loss.

Let's say Manny wins, fights Marquez in the fall and wins. He'll be 3-0 in his last 3 and Floyd will no longer be able to use his record against him. If they're able to work it out, Manny and Floyd could be in the same ring around this time next year. Floyd wouldn't fight Bradley. As a matter of fact, he just visited Bradley training camp to give him a pep talk.

if bradley wins, there will be an overwhelming demand for a bradley-mayweather fight, guaranteed

[DeeezNuuuts83]

Bradley is a pillow puncher. He doesn't have enough power to hurt anyone, but he does have a strong enough chin. Manny needs to outbox Bradley, because I doubt Bradley gets into a slug fest with him like he did with Provodnikov. The winner eventually fights Marquez, because I don't see Alvarado beating Marquez. Bradley/Marquez really doesn't make sense because the first fight was not close. Pacquiao/Marquez 5 is overkill, but makes sense for Manny to avenge the loss.

But still, I have the images in my head of Bradley getting knocked down by Provodnikov, who isn't exactly an elite fighter, in the first and last rounds.  Hopefully Manny gets a good opportunity like that again, he really needs a win by stoppage to really get the fans excited again.

I agree that it's likely going to be Marquez... but Arum (and Pacquiao and Marquez) are banking on Pacquiao and Marquez both winning, because out of the possible four options, that is the most lucrative one.  Yes, a fifth fight is overkill, but people will still watch it.  No one in their right mind will agree that winning one out of four fights is a real ending to a saga, even if it was by knockout.  I'd still feel the same way if it were the other way around, with Marquez up by two wins and Manny winning the last one by KO.  HOWEVER, if Marquez had KO'd Manny while ALSO being the clear winner the whole time leading up to it (think Pacquiao-Hatton), then that might have been a different story.  Similarly, if Provodnikov had managed to keep Bradley down in the twelfth round or if Chavez Jr. had managed to keep Martinez down in the twelfth round, then even if they won by KO, it was still a fight where the other guy was winning, and people would like to see that revisited.

Let's say Manny wins, fights Marquez in the fall and wins. He'll be 3-0 in his last 3 and Floyd will no longer be able to use his record against him. If they're able to work it out, Manny and Floyd could be in the same ring around this time next year. Floyd wouldn't fight Bradley. As a matter of fact, he just visited Bradley training camp to give him a pep talk.

It will definitely help, but the whole "record" thing has never really played a role.  Even when Manny was on his hot streak (15 or 16 wins straight since his last loss against Morales, prior to fighting Bradley), Floyd would always point out that Manny had already lost before.  So being 3-0 in his last fights doesn't mean that Floyd won't have anything to say anymore.

I agree that the earliest it will be is around this time next year.  Floyd insists that Bob Arum/Top Rank can't be involved, and Manny's contract expires at the end of 2014.  Manny likely won't try to break his contract early (since it likely won't be worth the legal headaches, plus when he signed his contract extension, he was getting a low seven-figure bonus if he fought twice in 2014), especially when it's not as if that will guarantee him the fight anyway, with all of the new demands from Team Mayweather that seem to get made every round of negotiations.  So I won't concern myself with that potential matchup for a while.

if bradley wins, there will be an overwhelming demand for a bradley-mayweather fight, guaranteed

Of course, why not?  But unfortunately for everyone involved, even if Bradley beats both Pacquiao AND Marquez again, Mayweather-Bradley just won't be as lucrative as Mayweather-Pacquiao would be (in a situation where Pacquiao would be the winner of his previous fights, obviously).  But it would still be a big fight, one that people would definitely want to see.

But again, Bradley signed a contract extension with Top Rank, so he's with them I think through around June 2015 or something.  When he did it, he was asked why, particularly about the fact that it reduces his chances to fight Floyd, and he stated that just because he wouldn't be with Top Rank doesn't mean that it would guarantee him a Mayweather fight anyway.  And even without Mayweather, Bradley still has some interesting options with Top Rank... maybe not ones that would get him eight-figure paydays right off the bat, but ones that would be good boxing matches that boxing fans would appreciate.  I think people would like to see Bradley-Provodnikov II.  Or him against the winner of Rios-Alvarado III (which is for sure in the pipeline, and likely for late 2014 or early 2015).  Or him against Cotto, likely at some catchweight between 147 and 154.

[Sccit]

I think yall are underrating Bradley...his celebrity is guna grow enormously if he wins again, he'll be the second most revered boxer behind mayweather

[DeeezNuuuts83]

I think yall are underrating Bradley...his celebrity is guna grow enormously if he wins again, he'll be the second most revered boxer behind mayweather

I'm not underrating him.  I just said that Mayweather-Bradley (assuming it happened if Bradley won both fights this year) wouldn't generate the same numbers as Mayweather-Pacquiao would (again assuming it happened if Pacquiao won both fights this year).  Bradley would have a lot of credit to his name at that point, likely having a 1+ million PPV event with Pacquiao and potentially two wins against both Pacquiao and Marquez... but the problem is that he's not really that exciting of a boxer to watch.

His style is good enough to keep him undefeated so far, but it's generally not that interesting.  I posted a picture earlier of one thing that he really needs to improve on, since he doesn't lock his wrists (which takes away from his punching power) or his elbows (which makes him swing much wider than necessary and looks like the kind of wild punches that dudes throw when there's five people jumping one guy).  Additionally, when he throws his hard right punches, they end up looking like a baseball pitcher throwing a ball or like he's swinging a tennis racket, as he doesn't seem to throw good, straight punches unless everything is perfect.  And when he's in intense exchanges, he looks like a teenaged kid fighting another kid at school.  But if he's up close and not pressured, he throws decent punches from inside.

But compared to some of the other elite boxers... Manny's offense is just punch after punch after punch, and it gets people to rise to their feet, especially since he's been able to knock people down.  It's entertaining to watch.  And even though Floyd isn't risky and doesn't finish people off, watching him fight may not be exciting, but his movements are so precise, and it's almost artistic to see him in action.  Someone like Marquez is just a warrior, and while his defense is really good but not quite as good as Floyd's, he's more willing to engage.  Cotto is just really skilled and with good speed and power.

Again, I'm not saying that Bradley is shit... his resume is excellent, especially in the past year or two.  But he's just not all that great to watch.  Not that one fight dictates your entire career, but it's sad how the biggest highlights of Bradley-Provodnikov are of rounds that he lost.

[DeeezNuuuts83]

Good fight... much more action than their first. Glad that Bradley could man up and give credit... and that will definitely help with his popularity after this. Maybe another crack at Provodnikov after this.

[DeeezNuuuts83]

Ideally, this is what I see for both fighters, after this fight.

PACQUIAO
Obviously, his most likely opponent for the end of 2014 will be the winner of Marquez-Alvarado, which is expected to be Marquez.  If he loses to that person, then he should let that be his swan song.  But if he wins, then his Top Rank contract will expire at the very end of 2014, and that opens doors to work with people outside of Top Rank... Mayweather is the obvious one.  Or maybe he can go at Khan (since there's at least the backstory of them having been sparring partners before, plus Khan left Roach to work with Hunter).

BRADLEY
He has a lot of intriguing options, that could all realistically happen before his Top Rank contract expires in May 2015.  Like I said before, Bradley-Provodnikov II at the end of 2014 would be a pretty good fight that could really win him some points, especially seeing how their first fight was crowned as the fight of the year.  And after Alvarado fights Marquez (and probably loses), they could set up Rios-Alvarado III, and perhaps the winner of that will fight the winner of Bradley-Provodnikov II in maybe March or April 2015.  Or maybe we can get Marquez-Bradley II around that time, as I have a feeling Marquez would still want to get another shot at that.

[Chamillitary Click]

This is partially how Mayweather wanted it to play out though for those who thought he was ducking Pacquiao. Manny looked golden a few years back and ready to go toe to toe with Floyd. Now a few years later, he's hitting that slope, he'll beat another guy or two & then the world will all want that Mayweather/Pacquiao fight again.

[DeeezNuuuts83]

This is partially how Mayweather wanted it to play out though for those who thought he was ducking Pacquiao. Manny looked golden a few years back and ready to go toe to toe with Floyd. Now a few years later, he's hitting that slope, he'll beat another guy or two & then the world will all want that Mayweather/Pacquiao fight again.

Real shit though -- Floyd was indeed ducking him.  In hindsight, I'll place more blame on Team Pacquiao for the first failed negotations, but after that, it was mostly on Team Mayweather.

But the problem is that while Mayweather-Pacquiao will always be a marketable fight, its peak interest was back in 2010 or 2011.  The fight happening now would probably still break records, but back in 2010 or 2011, it would have done even better to the point where it would never be touched, which would have rewarded both of them quite handsomely since they'd have received a cut of the PPV revenue.  So yeah, they'd both walk away with a lot of money, but they'd have walked away with more, since at this point there are some people who have lost interest, whether it's because they're tired of Floyd's shit or if they feel like Manny is over the hill and won't put up a competitive fight considering his two losses from 2012 and how he doesn't seem as fast or as strong in his last two fights than he did a few years ago.