Evolution Of Tim Lincecum

[Twentytwofifty]

The first pitch Tim Lincecum ever threw in the major leagues was reported to be 99 MPH on the Giants stadium gun (we don't have Pitch F/x data for that performance, unfortunately). He then proceeded to hit 100 three times in his first big league inning, showing the velocity that had gotten him drafted in the first round, even as scouts were concerned with his command, delivery, and workload. In that first year, Lincecum's fastball averaged 94.2 MPH, the seventh hardest fastball in the game, and he threw it 67 percent of the time.

Other than the hair, Lincecum barely resembles the pitcher he was just three years ago.



You don't need a best fit line to see the trend in that image. His velocity has been steadily falling since he arrived in the big leagues, and through his first three starts this year, his fastball is averaging just 91.7 MPH. He has thrown 312 pitches this year, and only three of them have topped 95. He now throws about as hard as Matt Harrison and Clayton Richard. But, this is the crazy thing - it hasn't mattered at all.

While Lincecum's lost his top end fastball, he's shown zero effects from it. In 20 innings this year, he has a 2.20 xFIP, and he's still blowing hitters away with nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings. He's worked in his slider more often and increased his change-up usage, so he now throws nearly as many off-speed pitches as he does fastballs. In just three years, Lincecum has gone from a flame throwing ace to a junkballer whose best asset his the command of his secondary stuff.

It's a pretty remarkable transformation. The pitcher he is now is almost the exact opposite of the guy he was in college. If you watched Lincecum in college, where he posted a career 5.7 BB/9, and projected that he'd become more Greg Maddux than Nolan Ryan, you'd have been laughed out of the room. But that's essentially what has happened.

Usually, when we point to reduced velocity, there are injury concerns or performance declines, but there's really nothing like that with Lincecum. He's still one of the best pitchers in the game - he's just doing it in a dramatically different way.

[Javier]

Great read

[S P I C E]

Easily the best pitcher in the game, that cant be argued.  He is going to last a very, very long time in this league and will go down as one of the greatest pitchers of all time.  I honestly see him winning at the very least 6 Cy Youngs in his career.  A legend already no doubt.

[you gon always be my latin queen bitch]

damn you sayin 6...that be crazy

[Chamillitary Click]

Easily the best pitcher in the game, that cant be argued.  He is going to last a very, very long time in this league and will go down as one of the greatest pitchers of all time.  I honestly see him winning at the very least 6 Cy Youngs in his career.  A legend already no doubt.

can't even argue Doc? i don't know, fam.

[S P I C E]

damn you sayin 6...that be crazy

Barring an injury this year I think he will win his 3rd straight Cy Young.

Considering that he has won 2 cy young's in his firsy two full seasons, I could definitely see him winning 6-8 Cy's before retiring.  The guy just knows how to pitch, with his changeup and release he can continue dominating the majors with 91-93mph fastballs for a long time. 

[Twentytwofifty]

Barring an injury this year I think he will win his 3rd straight Cy Young.

I wouldn't be too sure on that.  If Halladay can post a sub 2.80ERA in the AL East two years in a row I can see him pulling off a 2.50ERA in the National League.  He's likely to have more CG and IPs than Lincy and the biggest factor is that W stat that the voters love.  Halladay might just get 25 wins this year and Lincecum would be lucky to get 20.

[OG Hack Wilson]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=300421115

[The Come Up Shuffle]

Easily the best pitcher in the game, that cant be argued.  He is going to last a very, very long time in this league and will go down as one of the greatest pitchers of all time.  I honestly see him winning at the very least 6 Cy Youngs in his career.  A legend already no doubt.

can't even argue Doc? i don't know, fam.

Yanno Cham I think ya a cock sucking faggot but I gotta agree with ya here.  If I was to start a franchise I would go with Lincy but if you were to ask me who is the best pitcher in the NL as of right now I dunno lol.

[The Come Up Shuffle]

BTW Knuckles is one of the most underrated Baseball heads here.