Lifestyle > Train of Thought
I cant cosign RON PAUL because...
Primo:
I think the polls on primary day will be a totally different story than the polls tell. Kinda like the Straw poll the other day in Florida. it was overrun with Paul supporters and Mitt won by buying 20 tickets for one person.
Shallow:
Right now he shouldn't state any indy run. The republican nomination isn't set in stone yet and we have no way of knowing how many republicans want him in office. I garauntee that if he makes a lot of noise in the primaries and gathers up a lot of votes there the Ron Paul bandwagon will beg him to run and donate tens of millions. He'll tell them that if they can get him on the ballot in every state that he'll run. It'll be a lot like when Perot ran in 92 and 96.
Something tells me he'll be persuaded to run by the democratic elite and do to the republicans what Perot did to them twice and what Nader did to the Dems in 2000. Gore would have beaten Bush if Nader dropped out and Bush would have beaten Clinton in '92 if Perot didn't run. Even Dole could have won if Perot dropped out in '96. I think Paul will be the Dems tool to make sure the Republicans don't win this time. The funny thing is that if you watch the old debates you'll notice that Perot and Paul have a lot of the same philosophies.
I personally hope it blows up in everyone's face and Paul actually wins but I wouldn't expect it. I would be shocked if Paul doesn't run though. If it's Guiliani then I'm positive Paul will jump in. If it's McCain or Romeny then probably he'll jump in. Only if Huckabee pulls a shocker do I expect Paul to stay out of it. I don't expect Thompson to do very well. He's not the Reagan people thought he'd be.
What he really needs to do is communicate better with TV ads. A commercial explaining how much money is spent on over seas military in countries that haven't been even close to a threat in decades and how if the IRS was completely shut down and all the military spending that isn't needed wasn't spent the federal government would have more money than they do with all the income tax coming in. He's not for the fair tax so he won't scare anyone off with a 25% sales tax like Huckabee will. Just no federal income tax and no added tax to sales and it'd make a splash.
He also needs to explain to the public how Iraq would be better off the sooner the US is out. He can take a lot of votes from the Dems that way because they all want troops there until 2013, but he needs to get Reps to vote by convincing them it wasn't all a lost cause. Americans are stupid and they don't like the idea of being thought of as losers. If he can spin it so it looks like the US has won in Iraq then he can get votes from the pseudo-right.
He also has to master that Fox news approach to being right (they do it to hide they wring but if it works when you're wrong it works even better when you're right). McCain and Guiliani do it very well. They give that stupid smirk when they are proven wrong and it looks like guy that exposed them doesn't know what he'd talking about. Even when Paul is right he looks like he's on the defensive. He needs to roll his eyes a bit more and laugh with confidence rather than what seems like desperation when they something stupid like how isolationism is what caused Hitler to create the holocaust. The holocaust and America in the war could have been avoided if the US wanted to take the all the European jews in as refugees. There was more than enough room. And with out stupid foreign policy and sanctions on Germany in the first place the Nazi party never could have gotten popular in the first place because it never would have gotten to poor over there. Paul has to find a way to link all these famous wars to problems with foreign policy and let the public know what has really been going on with America the past few decades. Otherwise running the way he is running will only make him reason for the Dems to win.
jeromechickenbone:
Let me clear up a few things. Ron is clearly saying everytime "I have no plans AT THIS TIME to run as an independant" To me, he's saying that he's gonna ride the GOP bandwagon till the wheels fall off, re-evaluate his position and possibly go indie then. His rationale is that our country is EXTREMELY biased towards a two party system. Unless you got Ross Perot cheese, your ass isn't going to be able to compete. You won't get into debates, you won't get your name on ballots countrywide, etc. etc. So while Paul is unquestionably the most traditional conservative, he almost doesn't fit the Repub association because the neo cons have hijacked the party.
Keep in mind that Paul ran in 88 as a Libertarian, so he's not scared to do it.
My bold prediction is that if Paul doesn't get the GOP nod, he will then go indie.
His polling numbers are increasing drastically which is great considering that those are numbers are derived from people who voted AS A REPUBLICAN IN THE 04 ELECTION. Lots of his supporters don't fit that bill. In New Hampshire, which has the largest registered indie populations show Paul ahead of Thompson and McCain.
The biggest thing for Paul is to get name recognition. A lot of people don't know his name, but I've found that the majority of people that I talk to about him support him after they take the time to research for themselves.
virtuoso:
Shallow I respect most of your postings but on this one your point is based around a glaring inaccuracy. After the presidential results which resulted in Bush supposedly beating Al Gore, it was revealed that in fact Al Gore did win the election but through some blatant fraud, manipulation and Al Gore deciding to be the fall guy, Bush won. Secondly your argument is based around this notion that the democrats and the republicans are genuinely seperate, when in fact Murdoch has been thoroughly supportive of Hilary Clinton and Roger Aisles is the man who is advising her. Here is where the media cast official left and right paradigm is shattered, not just shattered but officially shattered. In fact this only acts as confirmation as what most people who are not so deeply entrenched in camps have realised already. They just wear a different jersey their policies and ideology are practically indistinguishable on the major issues. I think the likelihood is this, his popularity is growing exponentially, there is a deep growing awareness of him and therefore I don't think it likely even remotely possible
to even contemplate him being killed, it would be too obvious. The most likely scenario is they will cheat him by fixing the election results yet again, however that in itself would also be a positive if in the mean time Ron Paul's popularity keeps soaring because then people will consciously wake up to the fact that he has been cheated. It's the issues which he has raised to the public's consciousness that will matter more in the long term than if he gets screwed in this election. I recall Tucker Carlson even asking him how he intends to establish his policies if elected when both parties are consumed with neocon ideology.
jeromechickenbone:
^^^I agree, Paul's message is very strong and is resonating w/ people. For people that discover him and get it, it's almost like an awakening. If he doesn't get the Presidency, he's already spurred a revolution. His supporters are seeking public office on a local level all over the country.
And it's funny to hear the political pundits discuss Paul. Some, like Tucker and even Lou Dobbs are closet supporters, however they are very careful with how they talk about him as to not piss off the powers that be. But Lou Dobbs has said several times lately that the Repubs & Democrats are two wings of the same bird. He's talked about the Amero and NAFTA Hwy.
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